The Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in a familiar spot as heavy underdogs against the San Antonio Spurs in the second-round. Minnesota's first-round win against the Denver Nuggets proved that they should never be fully discounted.
Without a doubt, though, the Spurs are a different monster than the Nuggets (especially on defense), and Anthony Edwards' possible return is a key swing factor for the Wolves' upset chances. Currently, Edwards is listed as "week-to-week" with a bone bruise knee injury. There's a level of optimism that he'll return at some point in this series. However, it would still feel incredible to see Ant-Man return after suffering what looked to be a serious hyperextension last week.
The Wolves closing out the Nuggets without Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, and Ayo Dosunmu (in Game 6) was an amazing feat. Denver's subpar defense and athleticism helped the Wolves pull this off, though. The Spurs don't have these same flaws; they are the fourth-ranked defense led by a historically elite rim protector in Victor Wembanyama and have tons of athletes on the perimeter.
As such, Ant's return will be vital for the Wolves' upset chances.
The Timberwolves need Anthony Edwards to return
Within all likelihood, Edwards will miss the start of the series. However, if they can stay afloat without him, an upset could be in the cards once he returns.
Now, it's fair to wonder what level of play Ant could provide upon his possible return, which also factors into the improbability of what he needs to do.
The Wolves don't just need Edwards to return -- they need him to provide star-level production to overcome a powerful Spurs' defense despite suffering his second knee injury since mid-March.
Needless to say, that will be a difficult task, but frankly, this is the Wolves' best and perhaps only chance of winning.
It will be impossible to attack the Spurs' defense in the same way they attacked Denver's defense. Thus, the Wolves' repeating their own defensive brilliance will be key, but barring something unforeseen, they'll also need their superstar back to uplift their offense.
Pressuring the Spurs' defense feels like an impossible task -- but Edwards actually scored a career-high 55 points against San Antonio earlier this season. It takes a truly elite scorer to get the best of such a great defense, and without Ant, the Wolves don't have that. Edwards' elite 3-point shooting will also be vital to offset Wemby's rim protection.
Regardless, the clearest path for Minnesota to pull off an upset is for Edwards to return and provide a high level of production.
Plenty of folks will write off the Wolves in this series, and there's no denying they'll face an uphill battle. The Wolves could end up surprising everyone again, though, and this would almost certainly be paired with an improbable return from Edwards.