The Minnesota Timberwolves will begin their second round matchup with the San Antonio Spurs on Monday as heavy underdogs. The undermanned squad is currently listed at +950 to advance according to DraftKings Sportsbook, compared to San Antonio at -2000.
Chris Finch often hit the right buttons in their opening round victory over the Denver Nuggets, a team that also entered the series as favorites. Finch may need to see what he can get from a super-sized lineup featuring Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert. It worked well in the first-round, and it could do so again.
Going big can benefit the Timberwolves against the Spurs
With his starting backcourt of Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo out (as well as Ayo Dosunmu and Kyle Anderson for the series-clinching Game 6), Finch had to use lineups that he probably wasn’t expecting to in the playoffs. One of those is the aforementioned quartet of forwards/centers, and it paid dividends against Denver.
It’s not the hugest sample size with those four (35 possessions in the playoffs), but those 35 possessions were awesome. Per Cleaning the Glass, they had a net rating of +25.5, which is in the 99th percentile of playoff quartets. It shouldn’t be surprising that they have done a superb job on the offensive glass, gobbling up 36.4 percent of available rebounds on that end.
That can be useful against a Spurs team that is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, particularly on the defensive side. They led the league in defensive rebounding rate during the regular season.
It wasn’t quite as high in their five-game victory over the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round, but Portland had their two best offensive rebounding performances in Games 2 and 3. Victor Wembanyama left in the second quarter of Game 2 with a concussion and missed Game 3.
The Wolves could certainly use this lineup to counteract a San Antonio strength. They also know what worked against the Nuggets probably won’t work against the Spurs. Dosunmu, McDaniels, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Bones Hyland were among the Timberwolves players who constantly took it to the hole and put pressure on a Denver team with little rim protection. Obviously, Wembanyama is going to make that much more challenging.
That four-man ineup mostly was used alongside Shannon Jr. but also had multiple possessions with Hyland and Conley. It’s unclear if, or when, Edwards will return, but Finch can try him as the fifth guy as well in their big lineup.
The Spurs possess an awesome defense. Especially without Ant-Man, the Timberwolves may struggle to score at times. Giving themselves second (or even third) opportunities on a possession by grabbing offensive boards will give them more chances to score.