The Minnesota Timberwolves defied all expectations by taking down the No. 3-seeded Denver Nuggets despite dealing with injuries to Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, and Ayo Dosunmu (in Game 6). It was a remarkable display of fortitude for the Wolves.
All series long, they dominated on both ends of the court. On offense, they exposed the Nuggets' lack of athleticism and rim protection. On defense, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert shut down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Overall, it was one of the most impressive series I've ever seen.
With that in mind, the Timberwolves can't be fully discounted against the San Antonio Spurs in the second-round. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves don't have the same advantages they had over the Nuggets. Frankly, the Spurs are a different monster, and with Edwards' status in doubt, it's hard to see the Wolves pulling off an upset or even making it a highly competitive series.
The Timberwolves will have a challenging time against the Spurs' defense
As noted, the Wolves' main advantage on offense was their ability to attack the rim and punish mismatches. Unfortunately, you can't do that against the Spurs. While the Nuggets ranked 21st in defensive rating (per Cleaning the Glass), the Spurs ranked third in DRTG. This is a stark difference, and it could result in a difficult series for Minnesota.
Without a doubt, the biggest difference is Victor Wembanyama's rim protection. Wemby was the rightful Defensive Player of the Year and is truly a generational defensive talent. Opposing players shot just 56.2 percent against Wemby within six feet of the rim in the regular season, and in the playoffs, this number is 45.5 percent.
Likewise, the Spurs ranked third for opposing field goal percentage at the rim while the Nuggets ranked 28th in this stat. The difference between Jokic's lackluster rim protection and Wemby's elite rim protection can't be understated.
On top of this, the Spurs have a formidable perimeter defense with Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and De'Aaron Fox. This trio will put more pressure on the Wolves than Denver ever could -- and they can match Minnesota's athleticism. Unlike the Nuggets, the Spurs don't play bad defenders -- there's simply nobody that the Wolves can attack.
Given Wemby's rim protection, the path to the Wolves' pulling off an upset would be to shoot the lights out. Still, that will be difficult as they are down their two best shooters, and as mentioned, the Spurs' perimeter defenders are elite as well.
Edwards' possible return could change things. But how healthy will he be? And when can he return?
Defensively, Gobert and McDaniels can give the Wolves a blueprint to success. Still, McDaniels typically struggles with speedy guards like Fox, and the Spurs have more perimeter threats than the Nuggets. There's a path to the Wolves finding success on defense, but it will clearly be more challenging.
All in all, it will be difficult for the Timberwolves to replicate their blueprint to success against the Spurs, especially offensively.